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The population reached 1027 million in 2001. The prospects for its further growth are explored using state-level projections. It is likely to be in the vicinity of 1.4 billion by 2026, and could well approach 1.6 billion by 2051, as depicted in Figure 1.1. These projections employ what some would regard as fairly 'optimistic' assumptions about the pace of future demographic progress - namely that for the country as a whole the total fertility rate will fall to around 2.1 births per woman by 2016-21, when life expectation will be approximately 67 years for males and 70 for females. Alternative population projections, however, which also incorporate fairly plausible assumptions about future fertility, suggest that the population could reach 1.7 billion by 2051 and still be increasing. Yet other projections, which incorporate extremely optimistic assumptions about future fertility, indicate a population of at least 1.5 billion before it starts to decline. It appears that the only way 1.5 billion will not be reached is through an event such as an unexpectedly severe HIV/AIDS epidemic - or perhaps a full-scale nuclear war.

A population of about 1.4 billion in 2026 represents an addition of some 400 million over twenty-five years. Around half of this is likely to occur in the northern states of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh (MP), Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh (UP). These states’ populations will increase by 45-55 per cent during 2001-26. UP alone – including Uttaranchal - will reach some 270 million by 2026. And because they still have relatively high levels of fertility, it is the future fertility declines of these four states that will be particularly crucial in determining how much India's population will grow in the decades beyond 2026. Most other states in the country, however, already have moderate or low fertility, and their populations thus seem set to increase by only around 20-30 percent in the period to 2026 and grow only modestly thereafter. Fertility decline will ensure that the proportion of the population below fifteen years of age will fall considerably during 2001-26. Indeed, most population growth during this period will happen at ages above fifteen years. Consequently the median age of the population will rise appreciably - from perhaps 22 years in 2001 to around 31 by 2026.

The proportion of India's population aged 60 years and over is projected to rise from about 7 to 11 per cent during 2001-26. But because of the substantial fall in the proportion of the population at younger ages the overall dependency ratio of the population will decline significantly – that is, the ratio of those aged under 15 and over 59, to those aged 15-59. Not surprisingly, during 2001-26 the decline in dependency will be most pronounced in the states with relatively low levels of fertility.

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